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On Friday, a Ukrainian missile struck Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Crimea. Russia has not confirmed any deaths but top military commanders were among those reported wounded. "This suggests that it wasn't just a strike on the Black Sea Fleet HQ, but timed to target key senior leaders during a meeting." AdvertisementAdvertisementEarlier this week, Ukrainian officials said a command post near the port of Sevastopol was damaged in a missile strike. Within the last month, Ukrainian troops also launched a cruise missile strike on a Russian shipyard, damaging two warfighting vessels.
Persons: General Alexander Romanchuk, Oleg Tsekov, Kyrylo Budanov, Ostap Yarysh, Budanov, Rob Lee Organizations: Fleet, Russian, Service, Black, Pentagon, of America, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, Government of, Russian Federation, White House, Friday Locations: Ukrainian, Crimea, Russia, Wall, Silicon, Russia's, Zaporizhzhia, Russian, Sevastopol
Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be absent from the gathering, with Beijing giving no reason for the surprise miss – a move widely seen as a snub to India. Nevertheless, analysts say the gathering affords Modi a unique chance to shine on the world stage and flex India’s geopolitical muscle. India can act as a bridge,” said Kajari Kamal, associate professor at the Takshashila Institution in India. “For a long time, India was perceived as a nation of over 1 billion hungry stomachs,” Modi said in an interview with the Press Trust of India on Sunday. “It’s giving a great boost to infrastructure domestically, and to the world, it’s showcasing India’s culture and its rich heritage,” she added.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Modi, Modi’s statecraft, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, Mikhail Svetlov, , Kajari Kamal, , ” Modi, , Kamal, It’s, Putin, Biden, Akhil Ramesh, Xi, Putin –, Michael Kugelman, it’s, Ramesh Organizations: CNN, Indian, Beijing, Kremlin, East, Takshashila, Press Trust of India, Pacific Forum, South Asia Institute, Wilson Center, Ukraine, White, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, SCO, Union, Pacific Locations: New Delhi, Ukraine, China, Russia, India, Russian, Moscow, Osaka, Japan, South, , Australia, United States, Britain, East, Honolulu, Washington, Kremlin Moscow, Delhi
China’s new national map has angered its neighbors
  + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Rhea Mogul | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
CNN —The Philippines has become the latest of China’s neighbors to object to its new national map, joining Malaysia and India in releasing strongly worded statements accusing Beijing of claiming their territory. The map is the “latest attempt to legitimize China’s purported sovereignty and jurisdiction over Philippine features and maritime zones (and) has no basis under international law,” the Philippines Foreign Affairs department said in a statement. India was the first to complain on Tuesday when it lodged a “strong protest” about the inclusion of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and the disputed Aksai-Chin plateau in Chinese territory. “In this climate, while both sides may publicly express their interest in easing tensions, I do not see this happening. This map issue is very serious … the prime minister should speak about it,” he added.
Persons: , Arindam Bagchi, China’s, Wang Wenbin, , Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Xi, Modi, Akhil Ramesh, Aksai Chin, Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi Organizations: CNN, Beijing, South China, Philippines Foreign Affairs, Malaysia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Ministry, Indian, Pacific Forum, Modi, Huawei Locations: Philippines, Malaysia, India, China, Beijing, South, Manila, Arunachal Pradesh, Chin, Asia, South Africa, New Delhi, Honolulu, , Galwan, Tawang, LAC, Ladakh, United States, Japan, US, Australia, Jammu, Kashmir, Pakistan
Drone attacks on airfields in Russia are likely forcing it to reshape its air defense, UK intel said. Airfields and other locations deep within Russian territory have been pummeled in multiple strikes by exploding drone attacks in recent weeks — with one flurry, on the night of August 29, striking five separate locations. In August alone 25 places in Russia came under drone attack, the UK MOD said, even penetrating the defenses around Moscow. "Russia will have to consider the addition of further air defence systems to airfields that it considers to be at risk from UAV attacks," the UK MoD said. Russia has blamed the attacks on Ukraine, which generally doesn't claim responsibility for attacks on Russian soil.
Persons: Insider's Sinéad Baker, recrimination, Baker, Bob Hamilton, Ben Hodges, Insider's Erin Snodgrass Organizations: intel, Service, UK's Ministry of Defence, Center for Strategic, MOD, MoD, US Army, Foreign, Research, Eurasia Program, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Tupolev, Russia Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Moscow, Ukraine, Ukrainian, US Army Europe
Russia has sent elements of an elite paratrooper division to the south of Ukraine, reports say. Ukraine recently sent its powerhouse 82nd Air Assault Brigade into battle in Robotyne, which helped it achieve its breakthrough, per Forbes. Using the 76th in the south suggests Russia lacks reserves, experts sayElements of Russia's elite 76th Guard Air Assault Division have been deployed in key parts of Ukraine throughout the conflict. Russia's decision to redeploy elements of these units to the south suggests that Russian forces lack sizable operational reserves, the ISW said. The units sent to Robotyne appear to have been moved from the Kremmina area in eastern Ukraine, ISW noted.
Persons: Rob Lee, ISW Organizations: Analysts, Service, 76th Guard Air Assault Division, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Reuters, Air Assault Brigade, Forbes, Twitter Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia, Philadelphia, Azov
Ukraine lacks the drone capacity to conduct significant strikes in Russia, a war analyst says. Recent months have seen a spate of drone attacks in occupied Crimea and Moscow. Recent months have seen a spate of drone attacks in occupied Crimea and Moscow. Indeed, a reported Ukrainian drone strike Friday caused Moscow to shut down all four of its major airports, CNN reports. Ukraine can only use its own drones to strike inside Russia because of restrictions on using NATO weapons on Russian territory.
Persons: Bob Hamilton, Boris Alekseev, Yuriy Sak, Kelly Grieco Organizations: NATO, Service, Washington Post, CNN, US Army, Foreign, Research, Eurasia Program, Post, Moscow International Business Center, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Stimson, Army Tactical Missile Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Crimea, Moscow, Wall, Silicon, Ukrainian, Kyiv, United States
‘Peak China’ (Post-Dynasty Version)
  + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Ephrat Livni | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
“Peak China” refers to the hotly debated concept that China has reached the height of its economic power. Michael Beckley, head of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, believes he coined the term in a 2018 article that argued China’s economy, the world’s second largest, would not necessarily overtake the U.S. economy, as many had long projected. He said he had been inspired by “peak oil.”
Persons: Michael Beckley Organizations: Asia, Foreign Policy Research Institute Locations: , China, U.S
The Russian military has spent months digging in and fortifying its positions in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russian marines during combined exercises with Ukraine's military near Sevastopol in May 2011. "In many cases when they counterattack, this is fundamentally a battle of tree lines," Lee said of Ukraine's advance. "If Ukrainian forces advance and take a tree line, Russian armor moves out and begins to engage that entire tree line at the range of a couple of kilometers. Russian "units are fighting," Lee said.
Persons: Rob Lee, Lee, they've, Stringer Russia, Wojciech Grzedzinski, Putin, Ukraine didn't, we've, They're, Michael Peck Organizations: Service, Russian Army, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Storm, REUTERS, Naval, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Kharkiv, Defense, Foreign Policy, Twitter, LinkedIn Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russian, Sevastopol, Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian, Kharkiv, Forbes
Ukraine's opening move in the counteroffensive was unsuccessful, experts just back from a trip there assert. Part of the problem is that it relied on newer, less experienced units that made mistakes at a critical moment. That does not "mean that the offensive has failed," he said, adding important context to his assessment of the first round. And that assessment is supported by Lee's account of Ukrainian assault forces advancing against Russian defenses without suppressing artillery fire. Combined arms warfare is not something most countries do effectively, and Ukraine lacks both equipment and experience with this kind of fighting.
Persons: Rob Lee, Lee, Dmytro Smolienko, Michael Kofman, Franz, Stefan Gady Organizations: Service, Foreign Policy Research Institute, NATO, Publishing, Getty, Artillery, Center for Naval, Center for New American Security Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russia
A dog named BradleyThe armored fighting vehicles are so admired by Ukrainian soldiers that running around Kach’s team’s camp barking is “Bradley” – the brigade press officer’s 6-month-old rescue puppy. Russian artillery started to pick off the vehicles sent out to de-mine the area. The 47th ran into trouble very quickly trying to pierce the Russian line in their newly acquired armor. Outside loud booms from Ukrainian artillery cannons sweep across the heavily damaged and now largely empty town. They have more guns, they have more shells and they have more people so we must counter that with our … professionalism.”These days, that means the slow grind of the exposed troops fighting from trench to trench, assaulting tree line to tree line under heavy fire.
Persons: Ukraine CNN —, , , Kach, Bradley, “ Bradley ” –, Seb Shukla, “ It’s, Rob Lee, ” Lee, Tral, Stanislav, ” Stanislav Organizations: Ukraine CNN, Bradley, CNN, 47th Mechanized Brigade, US, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Locations: Ukraine, Ukrainian, Russia, Kharkiv, American, Germany, Kach’s, Crimea, Donbas, Azov, German, , Russian
Ukrainian soldiers said their lives were saved by the US-supplied Bradley IFVs they were riding in. One soldier said that if they were in a Soviet carrier "we would all probably be dead after the first hit." The soldiers are part of Ukraine's 47th brigade, according to ABC News, which is fighting near Zaporizhzhia in southeastern Ukraine. The US has sent 109 Bradleys to Ukraine, and this month pledged to send 30 more. While Ukraine is getting modern weapons and ammunition from Western partners, many Ukrainian soldiers still have to rely on Soviet-era weaponry.
Persons: Bradley IFVs, Bradley, , Serhiy, Andriy, It's, Rob Lee, Hanna Maliar, Oryx, Bradleys, Pat Ryder, Insider's Chris Panella Organizations: Service, Bradley, Russian, ABC News, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Twitter, Russian Grad, US, Pentagon Press, Air Force Locations: Ukraine's, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Soviet, Russian
Some Russian military bloggers with substantial followings expect a serious reshuffle of the military in the light of the Wagner uprising, and perhaps within the security services for not seeing the preparations for it. Putin has sought to reassert his authority after Prigozhin's mutiny. There is no way to verify Rybar’s allegations, but their airing may demonstrate a level of apprehension in the Russian military in the light of the mutiny. At one point, according to Russian military bloggers, Surovikin interceded to try to procure ammunition for Wagner. There is still considerable respect in Russian military circles for what Wagner has contributed to the Ukraine conflict.
Persons: Vladimir Putin’s, Wagner, Sergey Shoigu, Rybar, ” Rybar, Putin, Valery Gerasimov, Mikhail Teplinsky, Boris Rozhin, Sergey Surovikin, , Yevgeny Prigozhin’s, , Dmitry Peskov, Surovikin, Mark Galeotti, Galeotti, Tatiana Stayonova, Rob Lee, “ Wagner, ” Surovikin, Prigozhin, Vyacheslav Volodin, ” Volodin, Anastasia Kashevarova, Mikhail Tereshchenko, Stayonava, Shoigu, Yevgeny Prigozhin, George W Bush, Concord Company ”, we’ll, eking, Viktor Zolotov, ” Zolotov, ” Anastasia Kashevarova, Russia “, there’s Organizations: CNN, FSO, Federal Guard Service, Federal Protective Service, AP, General Staff, The New York Times, Mayak Intelligence, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Russian Aerospace Forces, Sputnik, Getty, Western Military, Concord Company, Kremlin, MoD, Defense Ministry, Russian National Guard, Ministry of Defense, Telegram Locations: Rostov, Moscow, Don, Russia, Ukraine, AFP, Bakhmut, Shoigu, Putin, St, Petersburg, Russian, Minsk, Belarus, Prigozhin
Russian nationalists blamed military leaders after a shocking report said a large number of troops was killed. "We are at war with our own stupidity and sloppiness," a Russian blogger wrote. It wasn't clear if the latest casualties also included troops from the naval infantry that Akhmedov had led before commanding a Russian field army. Russian generals and colonels have previously been accused of incompetence that led to military disasters. A Ukrainian New Year's strike led to as many as 400 deaths and fueled outrage that Russian officers had bivouacked troops within range of the GPS-guided HIMARS rockets.
Persons: , Sergey Kolyasnikov, Rob Lee, Zurab Akhmedov, milbloggers, Akhmedov Organizations: Service, Armed Forces, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Defense Locations: Russian, Kreminna, Ukraine, Luhansk, Ukrainian
How is Ukraine’s counter-offensive going so far?
  + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Tom Balmforth | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said Western equipment like battle tanks and armoured vehicles should help protect the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. "Ukraine's got choices," said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at International Institute for Strategic Studies. Those thrusts may indicate Ukraine's generals have their eye on Tokmak, an occupied town in Zaporizhzia region some 25 km from the front line. Military analysts saw it as unlikely this would become the focus of the main Ukrainian offensive. Images shared by Russian military bloggers showed destroyed or damaged U.S.-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Leopard 2 tanks, headline items of military aid sent by the West for the counteroffensive.
Persons: Rob Lee, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine's, Ben Barry, Lee, Konrad Muzyka, Hanna Maliar, Muzyka, Maliar, Russia's Vladimir Putin, Jack Watling, Tom Balmforth, Mark Trevelyan, Mike Collett, White, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Western, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Reuters, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russian, West, Interior Ministry, Deputy, Troops, Military, Bradley, Leopards, Thomson Locations: Kyiv, KYIV, Ukraine, Russia, Crimea, Moscow, Kherson, Kharkiv, Poland, Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Zaporizhzia, Melitopol, Velyka Novosilka, Bakhmut
Moscow's strategy in the south likely aims to maximise Ukrainian casualties before Kyiv can reach the main Russian line of defences about 10-15 km (6-9 miles) away, according to Lee. The main thrusts have come near the Kyiv-controlled town of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia region and Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk region, about 80 km to the east. "My main concern five or six days into this main phase is that the progress appears to have stopped. Military analysts saw it as unlikely this would become the focus of the main Ukrainian offensive. Images shared by Russian military bloggers showed destroyed or damaged U.S.-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Leopard 2 tanks, headline items of military aid sent by the West for the counteroffensive.
Persons: Rob Lee, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine's, Ben Barry, Lee, Konrad Muzyka, Hanna Maliar, Muzyka, Maliar, Russia's Vladimir Putin, Jack Watling, Tom Balmforth, Mark Trevelyan, Mike Collett, White, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Western, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Reuters, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russian, West, Interior Ministry, Deputy, Troops, Military, Bradley, Leopards, Thomson Locations: Kyiv, KYIV, Ukraine, Russia, Crimea, Moscow, Kherson, Kharkiv, Poland, Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Zaporizhzia, Melitopol, Velyka Novosilka, Bakhmut
Ukraine has lost 16 US-supplied Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, open-source analysis found. The losses are a sizeable chunk of the 109 Bradleys sent to Ukraine by the US. Dutch website Oryx, which tracks visual evidence of losses on both sides, documented five destroyed Bradleys and 11 that have been damaged and abandoned. The report on the Bradleys comes after Ukraine lost around half of its specially adapted Leopard 2R mine-clearing vehicles donated by Finland, as Forbes reported. The findings come as Ukraine reported retaking three settlements — Velyka Novosilke, Blahodatne, and Neskuchne in Donetsk region, as CNN reported.
Persons: , BMP2, Bradley, Rob Lee, Mala Tokmachka, Forbes, James, Spider, Marks Organizations: Bradley, Service, Institute for, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Twitter, Forbes, Oryx, CNN Locations: Ukraine, Ukraine —, Russia, Finland, Zaporizhzhia, Mala, Ukrainian, Neskuchne, Donetsk
Three senior U.S. officials, as well as military analysts, said that a long-awaited major Ukrainian counteroffensive appeared to be underway, after months spent mobilizing and training new units, and arming them with advanced Western weapons. A strong indication, they said, was the Ukrainians’ use in combat on Thursday of German Leopard tanks and American Bradley fighting vehicles. “Ukrainian forces have made some tactical gains and sustained losses.”The United States and other Ukrainian allies trained and equipped the nine brigades that were designed to lead Ukraine’s counteroffensive to recapture Russian-occupied land. Ukraine is widely expected to mount a multipronged assault along a front that arcs for hundreds of miles, focusing on a swath of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions. Ukraine’s plans target specific areas to try to break through Russian lines, but can adjust to concentrate on those thrusts that prove most successful, U.S. officials said.
Persons: American Bradley, , Rob Lee Organizations: Kyiv, U.S, German Leopard, Foreign Policy Research Institute Locations: Zaporizhzhia, American, Ukraine, United States, Russian, Donetsk, U.S
A photo of the wreckage, posted by a Russia-backed official, resembles the Iranian Mohajer-6 drone. The wreckage closely resembles the wing of a Mohajer-6 drone, which Iran manufactures, and Russia uses in the war. "So-called 'head' of Crimea claimed yesterday that a 'Ukrainian army' drone was taken down in Crimea and posted a photo," he wrote. "It seems they took down their own Iranian Mohajer-6 drone. While the shape of the object appears to resemble that of a Mohajer-6 drone, Insider could not independently verify the authenticity of the video.
Persons: , Sergey Aksyonov, Aksyonov, Rob Lee, Anton Gerashchenko Organizations: Service, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Internal, Russia's Defense Ministry Locations: Russia, Ukrainian, Crimea, Iran
Russia has essentially captured the city of Bakhmut, but it paid a heavy price, exhausting its forces. The win in Bakhmut, which remains contested, is its first battlefield victory in almost a year. The win is likely Pyrrhic, and analysts say there's little Russia can do but wait for Ukraine's next move. Libkos/APUkrainian and Russian troops have been engaged in intense combat over Bakhmut for nearly a year now, and both sides have seen countless soldiers killed and wounded. ISW noted around the time of Russia's claimed victory over Bakhmut that "Russian forces will likely need additional reinforcements to hold Bakhmut City and its flanks at the expense of operations in other directions."
“This is the second train, there was one like it just before.”The video, seemingly filmed in late March, shows old Soviet tanks being transported, somewhere in Russia. Moscow has been known to bring out older military equipment from storage to help it prosecute the war in Ukraine, but these are different. The tanks are T-55s, a model first commissioned by the Soviet Union’s Red Army in 1948, shortly after the end of World War II. Soviet T-54/T-55 tanks form a threatening ring round the Parliament buildings in Hungary on November 12, 1956. T-55 tanks drive through the streets of Prague, capital of what was then Czechoslovakia, in 1968.
The eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut was bombed in an apparent incendiary attack on Friday. Video shows the city ablaze with a bright glow, demonstrating Russia's "scorched earth" tactics. "The Kremlin or Prigozhin might have decided to resort to incendiary weapons as a last roll of the dice to force out Ukrainian troops." Videos circulated on social media early Friday, showing the Ukrainian city ablaze with a glow that prompted military analysts to suggest chemical weapons had been used. "The use of these horrific arms may violate the 1983 Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Incendiary Weapons.
(PRAKASH SINGH/AFP via Getty Images) Prakash Singh | Afp | Getty ImagesIndia's relationship with Russia remains steadfast as both sides seek to deepen their economic ties. Russia also wants to "intensify" free trade discussions with India, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said during a visit to Delhi. watch nowIt's becoming "more difficult with every passing day because of the closeness that we are witnessing between Beijing and Moscow," Pant noted. This defense cooperation is vital given India's tensions along the Himalayan border with an increasingly assertive China, said ORF's Pant. Now, the country cannot expect Russia to play "the same strategic role for India as it used to prior to the Ukraine war.
Chinese President Xi Jinping at a signing ceremony at the Grand Kremlin Palace, on March 21, 2023, in Moscow, Russia. China has been eager to position itself as a peace broker to end the Ukraine war, but has appeared to be allied with Moscow throughout. State media added that Beijing would make efforts for a cease-fire to be reached as soon as possible, in order to end what China called a "crisis" rather than a conflict. He was, however, surprised at the timing of China's call, as he expected it might wait and see how the counteroffensive proceeded before intervening. "I was confident that China would wait for the results of Ukrainian counteroffensive and would then probably propose something [on a cease-fire and peace talks]," he told CNBC Thursday.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy, Ukraine —, Max Hess, Oleksandr Musiyenko Organizations: Ukrainian, Russian, Eurasia, Foreign Policy Research Institute, CNBC, Centre for Military, Legal Studies Locations: Moscow, Russia, China, Ukraine, , Beijing, Kyiv
A map shows all the locations in Russia, along its border with Ukraine, and in Russian-held Ukraine, where the American Enterprise Institute found any kind of fortification built by Russia. Four maps show when the fortifications built by Russian along its border with Ukraine and in Russia-held Ukraine were first spotted on satellite imagery. In December 2022 and January 2023, fortifications appeared inside Russian regions and more parts of occupied Ukraine. Russian forces have dug many such trenches along what they see as key roads and junctions, and outside strategic cities, Africk said. A zoomed-in map shows fortifications around several towns such as Tokmak, Bilmak and Mykhailivka, along plain terrain and along major roads in Russian-held Ukraine.
Romania is the latest NATO member to say it will buy the F-35 stealth fighter jet. To some in the West, Turkey's decision to choose the S-400 over the F-35 just does not compute. As one of the original partners in the US-led F-35 program, Turkey should have been among the first to get the cutting-edge stealth fighter. The F-35/S-400 controversy illustrates Turkey's position as the odd man in NATO since it joined in 1952. Putin and Erdogan inspect a Russian Su-57 fighter jet at the MAKS air show in Russia in August 2019.
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